Advertising moves before earnings do.

Verified advertising spend, pricing intelligence, and forward booking signals — structured for the institutional research workflow. Used by 18 of the top 20 hedge funds.

Guideline Capital Markets Screenshot
$200B
In annual global ad spend intelligence
18 of 20
Top hedge funds use Guideline
180+
Public tickers tracked

the thesis

Quarterly earnings are the lag. Advertising is the lead.

Markets move daily. Earnings arrive quarterly. Between the print cycles, companies tell you where they're going — by where they spend. Advertising budgets shift weeks before revenue lands, pricing dynamics shift before margins compress, and category momentum shows up in ad activity before it shows up in guidance.

CAPTURED WEEKLY
01

Ad spend activity

Captured directly from agency invoicing — not surveys or scraping.

NORMALISED CONTINUOUSLY
02

Verified capture

Structured, ticker-mapped, and normalised against industry taxonomy.

DELIVERED STRUCTURALLY
03

Institutional signal

Modelling-ready data feeds, delivered into your research workflow.

Two verified data infrastructures. One institutional intelligence stack.

Capital Markets is built on two foundational data infrastructures — verified spend across traditional and digital media, and platform-level visibility into programmatic and digital activity. Everything else in the product suite is built on top.

Core 1.0

The primary verified ad spend dataset. Traditional and digital media, ownership-mapped, ticker-resolved, with category structures and historical depth. The institutional ground truth.

Monthly verified spend across traditional + digital
Ticker-mapped ownership structures
Historical ad spend depth
Global coverage

Prisma

Digital planning and programmatic intelligence infrastructure. DSP and SSP visibility, publisher and platform analysis, programmatic demand flow, and CPM pricing dynamics — the digital depth underneath Capital Markets.

DSP/SSP visibility
Publisher and platform analysis
Programmatic demand flow
CPM pricing intelligence

the Product Suite

From verified data to predictive intelligence. The signal pipeline.

From verified advertising transactions to predictive market intelligence — each layer builds progressively on the infrastructure beneath it.

LAYER 01

Verified Transaction Infrastructure

Verified advertising transaction infrastructure for institutional modeling, backtesting, and longitudinal research. Reconciled, normalised, ticker-mapped, and delivered as structured feeds — the institutional ground truth of advertising activity.

MONTHLY
FLAT FILE
TICKER-MAPPED

Core 1.0

Verified monthly spend, traditional + digital

Global Flat File

Modeling-ready normalised files for ingestion

Industry & Category Spend

Vertical and subcategory trend analysis

LAYER 02

Digital & Programmatic Intelligence

Platform-level visibility into programmatic demand, pricing dynamics, and digital spend movement. Built on Prisma's programmatic and platform infrastructure.

WEEKLY
API + FILE
PLATFORM-LEVEL

Advanced Digital

Platform and publisher granularity

DSP Intelligence

Programmatic demand flow and DSP concentration

Digital CPM Pricing

Publisher-level pricing power and CPM movement

LAYER 03

Forecasting & Forward Signals

Point-in-time pacing, committed spend, and forward visibility for earlier revenue forecasting. The predictive products built on top of the foundational data.

WEEKLY
POINT-IN-TIME
FORWARD COMMIT

Ad Spend Forecast (ASF)

Current-month committed spend + modeled forecasts

ASF + 2 Month Outlook

Forward visibility into future commitments

ASF Weekly Data

Weekly refresh for inflection detection

Forward Bookings

Committed spend projections earlier in the cycle

LAYER 04

KPI & Analyst Intelligence

The interpretation layer. Powered by Guideline Insights — translating spend momentum into analyst-ready KPI forecasts, peer benchmarking, and predictive narratives.

ON-DEMAND
ANALYST-READY
INTERPRETED

Company KPI
Forecasts & Insights

Analyst-ready predictions

Peer Benchmarking

Cross-ticker context

Forecast Interpretation

Drivers, deltas, and predictive narratives

Built for the institutional research workflow.

Verified, not modelled

Data sourced directly from agency invoicing and media billing infrastructure. Not panels. Not scraping. Not surveys.

Structured for ingestion

Flat files, scheduled deliveries, stable schemas, data dictionaries, onboarding documentation. Built to drop into existing modeling workflows, not learned through a UI.

Weekly cadence, not quarterly

Weekly refreshes for inflection detection and event-driven research. Forward visibility through ASF and committed spend projections. Faster than the print cycle.

Institutional adoption

Used by 18 of the top 20 hedge funds. Embedded in equity research workflows, quant signal libraries, and private equity diligence processes. The institutional default.

Coverage

Global coverage. Ticker-mapped. Continuously expanding.

Hundreds
Private companies tracked
Full sector
Coverage across consumer, technology, media, financial, healthcare
Continuously
Expanded based on institutional client requests
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Built for the institutional research workflow.

Used by the hedge funds, quant teams, equity research desks, and private equity firms that depend on alternative data for early signals.

Hedge funds

Early signals on revenue momentum, category shifts, and competitive pressure. Weekly-cadence inputs for active positioning.

Equity research

Coverage models built on verified ad spend. KPI forecasts ahead of earnings. Peer benchmarks across the sector.

Private equity

Diligence on acquisition targets. Portfolio company monitoring. Market sizing on verified spend, not modelled estimates.

Quant & data platforms

Modeling-ready flat files. Stable schemas, scheduled deliveries, structured ingestion. Built for systematic workflows.

Talk with us

Bring Capital Markets feeds into your research workflow.

A short conversation is usually enough to understand which Capital Markets feeds fit your modelling, research, or diligence workflow — and to walk through onboarding, schemas, and delivery cadence.

Talk to a Guideline Expert