Advertising moves before earnings do.
Verified advertising spend, pricing intelligence, and forward booking signals — structured for the institutional research workflow. Used by 18 of the top 20 hedge funds.
the thesis
Quarterly earnings are the lag. Advertising is the lead.
Markets move daily. Earnings arrive quarterly. Between the print cycles, companies tell you where they're going — by where they spend. Advertising budgets shift weeks before revenue lands, pricing dynamics shift before margins compress, and category momentum shows up in ad activity before it shows up in guidance.
CAPTURED WEEKLY
Ad spend activity
Captured directly from agency invoicing — not surveys or scraping.
NORMALISED CONTINUOUSLY
Verified capture
Structured, ticker-mapped, and normalised against industry taxonomy.
DELIVERED STRUCTURALLY
Institutional signal
Modelling-ready data feeds, delivered into your research workflow.
Two verified data infrastructures. One institutional intelligence stack.
Capital Markets is built on two foundational data infrastructures — verified spend across traditional and digital media, and platform-level visibility into programmatic and digital activity. Everything else in the product suite is built on top.
Core 1.0
The primary verified ad spend dataset. Traditional and digital media, ownership-mapped, ticker-resolved, with category structures and historical depth. The institutional ground truth.
Prisma
Digital planning and programmatic intelligence infrastructure. DSP and SSP visibility, publisher and platform analysis, programmatic demand flow, and CPM pricing dynamics — the digital depth underneath Capital Markets.
the Product Suite
From verified data to predictive intelligence. The signal pipeline.
From verified advertising transactions to predictive market intelligence — each layer builds progressively on the infrastructure beneath it.
LAYER 01
Verified Transaction Infrastructure
Verified advertising transaction infrastructure for institutional modeling, backtesting, and longitudinal research. Reconciled, normalised, ticker-mapped, and delivered as structured feeds — the institutional ground truth of advertising activity.
Core 1.0
Verified monthly spend, traditional + digital
Global Flat File
Modeling-ready normalised files for ingestion
Industry & Category Spend
Vertical and subcategory trend analysis
LAYER 02
Digital & Programmatic Intelligence
Platform-level visibility into programmatic demand, pricing dynamics, and digital spend movement. Built on Prisma's programmatic and platform infrastructure.
Advanced Digital
Platform and publisher granularity
DSP Intelligence
Programmatic demand flow and DSP concentration
Digital CPM Pricing
Publisher-level pricing power and CPM movement
LAYER 03
Forecasting & Forward Signals
Point-in-time pacing, committed spend, and forward visibility for earlier revenue forecasting. The predictive products built on top of the foundational data.
Ad Spend Forecast (ASF)
Current-month committed spend + modeled forecasts
ASF + 2 Month Outlook
Forward visibility into future commitments
ASF Weekly Data
Weekly refresh for inflection detection
Forward Bookings
Committed spend projections earlier in the cycle
LAYER 04
KPI & Analyst Intelligence
The interpretation layer. Powered by Guideline Insights — translating spend momentum into analyst-ready KPI forecasts, peer benchmarking, and predictive narratives.
Company KPI Forecasts & Insights
Analyst-ready predictions
Peer Benchmarking
Cross-ticker context
Forecast Interpretation
Drivers, deltas, and predictive narratives
Built for the institutional research workflow.
Verified, not modelled
Data sourced directly from agency invoicing and media billing infrastructure. Not panels. Not scraping. Not surveys.
Structured for ingestion
Flat files, scheduled deliveries, stable schemas, data dictionaries, onboarding documentation. Built to drop into existing modeling workflows, not learned through a UI.
Weekly cadence, not quarterly
Weekly refreshes for inflection detection and event-driven research. Forward visibility through ASF and committed spend projections. Faster than the print cycle.
Institutional adoption
Used by 18 of the top 20 hedge funds. Embedded in equity research workflows, quant signal libraries, and private equity diligence processes. The institutional default.
Coverage
Global coverage. Ticker-mapped. Continuously expanding.
Built for the institutional research workflow.
Used by the hedge funds, quant teams, equity research desks, and private equity firms that depend on alternative data for early signals.
Hedge funds
Early signals on revenue momentum, category shifts, and competitive pressure. Weekly-cadence inputs for active positioning.
Equity research
Coverage models built on verified ad spend. KPI forecasts ahead of earnings. Peer benchmarks across the sector.
Private equity
Diligence on acquisition targets. Portfolio company monitoring. Market sizing on verified spend, not modelled estimates.
Quant & data platforms
Modeling-ready flat files. Stable schemas, scheduled deliveries, structured ingestion. Built for systematic workflows.
Talk with us
Bring Capital Markets feeds into your research workflow.
A short conversation is usually enough to understand which Capital Markets feeds fit your modelling, research, or diligence workflow — and to walk through onboarding, schemas, and delivery cadence.
Talk to a Guideline Expert