Programmatic advertising powers a significant share of today’s digital media ecosystem—but for many, it still feels opaque.
In this episode of Media Monitor, Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright unpack Guideline’s new quarterly programmatic benchmark report, breaking down how programmatic actually works, what the latest data shows, and where the market is heading next.
From Rapid Growth to Market Maturity
Over the past few years, programmatic has been one of the fastest-growing segments in advertising.
In 2024, the market experienced exceptional growth, with some months seeing increases as high as 20–50% year-over-year. But in 2025, that pace has begun to normalize. Growth remains positive—but has slowed significantly, trending closer to low double digits and, in some cases, single digits.
This shift reflects two key dynamics:
- Macroeconomic pressure impacting overall ad spend
- Market maturation, particularly as major streaming platforms have already introduced ad-supported models
The result is a transition from explosive expansion to more sustainable, predictable growth.
Streaming and CTV: The Engine Behind Programmatic
A major driver of programmatic growth has been the rise of streaming and connected TV (CTV).
In fact, much of the growth in streaming advertising today is directly tied to programmatic buying. As platforms like Netflix and Amazon introduced ad-supported offerings in recent years, they created a surge in available inventory—fueling rapid adoption.
Now that most major players are in the market, growth is no longer driven by new entrants, but by incremental gains and optimization.
Looking ahead, this relationship will only deepen. As streaming continues to scale, programmatic is expected to capture an even larger share of that investment.
Category Shifts Reveal Where Investment Is Moving
While programmatic is growing overall, category-level data reveals a more nuanced story.
Categories increasing investment include:
- Telecommunications
- Insurance
- Quick-service restaurants (QSR)
These sectors are leaning into programmatic for its targeting precision and scalability.
At the same time, some categories are pulling back:
- Credit cards
- Alcohol
- Toys and games
In many cases, these declines are tied to broader economic and industry-specific pressures, reinforcing that programmatic growth is not uniform—it is shaped by underlying market conditions.
Programmatic vs. Direct: A Surprising Plateau
Despite its growth, programmatic has not yet overtaken direct buying.
In 2025, programmatic has remained relatively stable at around 30% of total media transactions, with the remaining 70% still executed through direct channels.
This stability is notable. Given the rapid growth of programmatic, many expected its share to increase more quickly. Instead, the market appears to be in a phase of balance rather than displacement.
Not All Programmatic Is Created Equal
Within programmatic itself, buying methods vary significantly:
- Open Marketplace (≈50%)
Broad, accessible inventory where buyers prioritize reach and efficiency - Private Marketplaces (≈30%)
Invite-only environments offering premium or curated inventory - Programmatic Guaranteed (≈16%)
Reserved inventory with fixed pricing and delivery commitments
This mix highlights an important evolution: programmatic is no longer just about efficiency—it’s also about control, quality, and access to premium inventory.
What to Expect in 2026
Looking ahead, programmatic is poised for continued expansion—but at a measured pace.
As streaming growth increasingly flows through automated channels, programmatic share is expected to rise beyond its current ~30% baseline. Even modest gains—to the low-30% range—would signal continued structural adoption.
The bigger shift, however, is conceptual:
Programmatic is no longer just a tactic.
It is becoming a foundational layer of how modern media is bought and sold.
The Media Monitor Mission
Media Monitor exists to make complex media dynamics more understandable—connecting data, trends, and real-world implications for modern media teams.
New episodes are released every Wednesday on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts, covering the forces shaping the advertising industry.
At Guideline, our mission is to bring transparency and control to the media lifecycle. Through our data and Media Plan Management technology, we help teams connect insight to execution—so they can plan smarter, move faster, and stay ahead of the market.
If you’re interested in accessing the programmatic benchmark report or learning how these insights apply to your strategy, connect with our team to learn more.
